88% and getting better all the time
- How accurate are the daily estimates?
- What can affect accuracy?
- How are the estimates calculated?
- What does it mean if I've generated more than the estimate?
- What does it mean if I've generated less than the estimate?
How accurate are the daily estimates?
From our experience with users so far, the estimates that are produced are around 88% accurate and we're working hard to continuously improve that accuracy.
What can affect accuracy?
Note that during summer, due to greater weather stability, the estimates tend to be more accurate. Similarly, winter estimates experience higher variability.
The same trend is also seen in locations which are more consistent in terrain. If you live in an area where the surrounding land is dedicated to the same type of land use, you will see fewer variations. The reverse is true if you live in an area with diverse land uses in close proximity e.g. a mix of hills, rivers, heavily built up and forested areas.
How are the estimates calculated?
We model each of your system arrays (number and power of panels, pitch and orientation) for the solar irradiance that they would have experienced over the course of a day and therefore how much power they should have generated. We take in to consideration things like the age of your system, shading and losses from your inverter.
This estimate is calculated in the form of a range of values e.g. from 1.5kWh - 1.8kWh. However, to make things easier and because the main thing to know is that your system is not underperforming, we only consider the bottom of that range. i.e. If you're system produces more than 1.8kWh, then there's nothing to worry about!
The number shown in Solar Sentinel is the lower value in this estimated range and therefore anything above that is shown as good and anything below that is marked as subpar or bad, depending on how much lower it is.
What does it mean if I've generated more than the estimate?
Congratulations!
Bearing in mind that the estimate presented is the lower value in a range, for most of the time, you area likely to be generating more than this figure.
If you're consistently generating much more than this estimate, then this may be because we've included some form of shading in our estimates that is no longer present e.g. you've trimmed a tree. Let us know and we can work with you to get your system modelling and performance estimates updated.
What does it mean if I've generated less than the estimate?
In most cases, it's simply a variation in weather. If you see consistent and significant underperformance, then there may some obstruction on the panel that needs cleaning off or shading that is now blocking the light (which wasn't before).
For more info on what you can do if you think your system is underperforming, take a look at our other articles here.